Lemonade ($LMND)
As of 2024-05-04
• $LMND Stock Thesis in 20 Minutes
• ~70m shares outstanding (low share count).
• Ended Q3 and Q4 2023 with $945 cash and investments.
• Europe is becoming an increasingly important part of the business. Lemonade will be an international insurance company.
• In Force Premium (IFP) and Customer Count (CC) continues to rise while Gross Loss Ratio (GLR) continues to fall.
• Use of AI is central to the benevolent cycle that improves the strength of the business over time. From the 4Q 2023 Shareholder Letter, page 10: "This composite AI harnesses some 50 machine learning models to predict, for each customer, their lifetime value, or LTV, in net present dollar terms."
• Doubling their growth budget is expected to increase IFP by 50%.
• Guiding for 25% CAGR.
• Company should be cash flow positive 4Q-2024 and profitable by mid 2026.
• Expected cash burn between now and when the company is cash flow positive (~mid 2025) is $90m.
Last updated